Diazgranados, Mauricio , Wahidi, Lila , Vinzon, Paolo , Barber, Janet .
Predicting impacts of climate change on future distributions of Macaronesian Sideritis.
Macaronesian Sideritis L. comprises an endemic clade of 23 species of suffrutescent to woody perennials. The species are restricted to the Atlantic archipelagoes of the Canary Islands and Madeira and represent one of the most spectacular Macaronesian plant radiations. The insular Sideritis clade – indeed the entire native Macaronesian flora – survives in a precarious state, threatened by land use practices and climate change. Only four species are found on more than one island and populations in general are small and narrowly restricted to specific ecological zones. Several species are considered threatened or endangered. The goal of this project is to generate working hypotheses to predict how these plants will respond to climate change. We databased all herbarium collections of Sideritis from nine herbaria and from published literature, a total of 222 collections; of these, 208 are georeferenced. Modeling was performed with Maxent 3.3.3a and ArcMap 10, using layers of climate (19 bioclim layers) and elevation with a resolution of 30 arc-seconds available through the Worldclim database(www.worldclim.org). Predictions were inferred using thirty different scenarios of climate change for the years 2020-2080 and employing different models (CCCMA-CGCM3.1, CSIRO-MK30, IPSL-CM4,MPI-ECHAM5, UKMO-HADCM3, NCAR-CCSM30) for two emission scenarios (A1b andB2a). Outcomes vary depending on individual species, years and scenarios. In general, most scenarios predict a decrease in distribution area for most species, with 1-8 species predicted to become extinct by 2080. Unexpectedly, some models predict an increase in the distribution area for 2-7 species, coupled with a displacement or concentration of suitable areas. One caveat to these predictions is that the models do not incorporate impacts of land use practices. Overall, our results suggest an active, ongoing dynamic for species of Macaronesian Sideritis. These results provide an unprecedented opportunity to test biogeographic processes and responses to climate change and should lead to a better understanding of the specific variables contributing to species distributions in this diverse and threatened clade.
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1 - Saint Louis University, Department Of Biology, 3507 Laclede Avenue, St. Louis, MO, 63103, USA
Presentation Type: Oral Paper:Papers for Topics
Location: Waterman Room/Chase Park Plaza
Date: Wednesday, July 13th, 2011
Time: 1:45 PM