Vanderweide, Benjamin , Sandercock, Brett , Ferguson, Carolyn .
Mark-recapture analysis of herbarium data from the northern Flint Hills of Kansas, USA.
Data from herbarium specimens are frequently used to track changes in flora, including range shifts, extinctions, and species introductions. However, the detection probability of a plant species in a flora is often less than one and is not constant across space, time, or taxa. As a result, studies of regional species richness may report patterns where there are none or miss patterns that exist. Furthermore, the number of species in regional flora may often be grossly underestimated. Capture-mark-recapture (CMR) tools are widely used to account for such problems in the study of demographic patterns in plant and animal populations and communities, and may be useful for the analysis of herbarium data. We obtained data representing herbarium specimens collected between 1892-2005 from seven counties of the northern Flint Hills of Kansas, USA, from the Kansas State University Herbarium (KSC) and the University of Kansas R. L. McGregor Herbarium (KANU) in October 2010. Robust design model was used to perform the initial analysis. This model combines open and closed population modeling to estimate population size (the number of species in the flora), apparent survival (phi), and the detection probability (p), among other parameters. Four periods of peak collection were used as the primary sampling occasions: the first from 1892-1897, the second from 1924-1929, the third from 1972-1977, and the fourth from 2000-2005. The initial analysis indicates that many parameters, including estimates of species richness and detection probability, are dependent on collecting effort. Furthermore, compared to analysis of the raw data, the robust design analysis indicated a significant linear increase in introduced species richness in the regional flora over time. Despite limitations of herbarium data, these initial analyses suggest that capture-mark-recapture methods may be used to account for these problems, providing better estimates of changes in regional flora over space and time and valuable insights into collection patterns.
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1 - Kansas State University, Division of Biology, Ackert Hall, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA
Presentation Type: Oral Paper:Papers for Topics
Location: Waterman Room/Chase Park Plaza
Date: Wednesday, July 13th, 2011
Time: 2:15 PM